A few weeks ago following a disgraceful playoff second-round meltdown against the Boston Celtic, the Philadelphia 76ers made the decision to dispense with the services of Glenn "Doc" Rivers as coach.
Not long after that sacking, there was an article written in The Guardian titled "Don't Stop with Doc Rivers. Time to Burn the Philadelphia 76ers to the Ground."
This was actually one of the most thought-provoking articles that I had come across for a while because it made me wonder which way the Philadelphia 76ers actually should go. Should they retool for another run at the Championship or should they, as suggested, burn it all to the ground and start again?
It isn't the first time that Philadelphia has faced this very question.
After the 2012-13 NBA Season, they took the extraordinary decision of openly stating that they were going to lose games in a bid to rebuild the team into a title contender. This commonly became known as 'The Process' where they would trade away any decent players in a bid to acquire draft assets and also lose as many games as they could in order to secure high draft picks.
'The Process' in that respect was a success with the most high-profile picks being as follows 2014 - Joel Embiid (Pick #3) 2014 - Dario Saric (Pick #12 traded with Orlando) 2015 - Jahlil Okafor (Pick #3) 2016 - Ben Simmons (Pick #1) 2017 - Markelle Fultz (Pick #1 traded with Boston)
The question and debate however remains, was it actually a success on the court?
2017-18 - lost in Conference Semi-Finals 2018-19 - lost in Conference Semi-Finals 2019-20 - lost in First Round
2020-21 - lost in Conference Semi-Finals 2021-22 - lost in Conference Semi-Finals 2022-23 - lost in Conference Semi-Finals
And as for some of those players...the only one remaining in the team is Joel Embiid. Saric is at Oklahoma City Thunder, Simmons (the less said here the better) is at Brooklyn, Okafor is in the G-League and Fultz is at Orlando Magic.
I'll leave the judgement and analysis of that to others!
Back to the present though.
Following the sacking of Rivers, the Philadelphia 76ers made the decision to hire Nick Nurse as coach. This is not a bad appointment at all and it signals that Philadelphia still has some aspirations of finally capturing the team's first NBA Title since the 1982-83 season. Nurse is a steady hand and his record at Toronto (227-163 including 2 Atlantic Division titles and 1 NBA Title) is a testament to that.
They do however have a couple of very sizeable problems ahead that will require the best of Nick Nurse and General Manager Daryl Morey to figure out.
Problem 1: James Harden Harden has a player option for $35.6m next season and it is this which has the most intrigue attached.
Convincing Harden to either accept the player option (for the 2023-24 season) or turn it down and sign a new contract is the number 1 priority here. Having given up a lot to acquire Harden to begin with, it would be horrendous if he declines the player option and becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent because you could bet at that point, he's not coming back.
If he does stay, whether on that player option or declining that player option and negotiating a new contract you basically have 1-2 more runs at a title and if you're Philadelphia with Embiid in his prime, you basically have no choice but to win.
At this point in time though all the rumours are suggesting that he is going to turn it down, leave Philadelphia and head back to Houston.
Assuming he does indeed leave, the best you could hope for if you were Philadelphia is to persuade him to participate in a sign and trade. Also assuming that he does indeed want to go back to Houston, they would either have to do a straight trade with Houston (difficult to see Houston wanting to give up draft assets or some of their young players) or they would have to involve a third team.
Problem 1.1: If James Harden leaves, can Philadelphia still compete in the East?
The answer to this question will determine which path the Philadelphia 76ers go down.
If they honestly think that despite losing Harden, they can still compete with a team containing Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey as a core, they would then have to re-tool and go for it. They have no draft picks this season and minimal draft picks going forward, also caught out by the Stepian Rule. Re-tooling here is borderline insanity and extraordinarily difficult.
If they look at the roster and hand-on heart decide that they cannot compete going forward, well, therein lies one of the biggest questions.
Where do they go from here?
I do not believe that Nick Nurse signed up for a rebuilding project but if Harden leaves, you have one of two options left to you
Option A: Re-tool around Joel Embiid Nick Nurse is going to want to compete for a title and with the current MVP Joel Embiid, that is a very good starting point. The lack of draft assets and cap space puts Philadelphia in a frightening situation. Harden declining and leaving frees up $35.6m but they still don't have a lot to spare.
They do however have one asset that might be worth exploring and that is trying to rid themselves of Tobias Harris' horrendous contract. In the most recent season, Harris earned just over $37.6m and his averages were 14.7pts 5.7rbs and 2.5ast. In the 2023-24 season, he's scheduled to earn $39.2m. Overpaid and frankly the production doesn't match the salary.
Equally worth discussing is the ridiculous decision to pay $11m to a 38-yr old P.J. Tucker. I mean, no disrespect to Tucker but that is absolutely ludicrous in every sense of the word. Could you explore the possibility of some sort of trade here as well?
This is a path fraught with danger but if the cards somehow fell the 76ers way, they could re-tool enough to remain competitive but unlikely to see a title.
This then leads to Option B
Option B: Take the advice of The Guardian article and literally burn it all to the ground This is a very hard sell, not just to Nurse, but also to the city of Philadelphia, whose fans are notoriously demanding and in some cases quite difficult. They are passionate but they don't tolerate mediocrity. They tolerated 'The Process' because they knew that it was a path to success but, would they tolerate something similar a second time around?
I have a lot of trouble imagining that they would but again, what would such a scenario entail?
Well really, this is what you would do*?
*In this scenario we are assuming Harden wants out of Philadelphia
1) Sign and trade Harden whether straight trade or involving a third team
- You will definitely net some draft assets which the 76ers are light on
- Equally, you might take on some expiring contracts, freeing up more cap space from 2024-25 onwards
2 a) Trading Tobias Harris - Again, this would be non-negotiable. His contract is a shocker and really, Harris would be a good fit for a team contending especially providing some very good backup - You would net draft assets and potentially another expiring contract or 2 2 b) Keep Tobias Harris - This option would only be viable if you were looking to rebuild but still remain competitive - While his contract is a shocker, 2023/24 is the last year of his contract so potentially you wear the cost of that and then let him go as an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season
3) Trade Joel Embiid - I don't like this option at all but Embiid is at the age where he wants to compete and win a title. He deserves that opportunity and has been let down by a combination of bad coaching and bad luck. His performance in Game 7 vs Boston was also a shocker so there is that question about how he'll bounce back from that. - Embiid being the current MVP has a very high trade value though a very expensive contract in upcoming seasons. - Would he be the sort of help that Lillard would want in Portland? - Could you look at one of the draft asset-rich teams like Utah, OKC, and San Antonio and persuade them to part with some of those assets and a couple of younger players?
Option B would be The Process Mark II and it wouldn't just be burning the team to the ground. It would be ripping the heart and soul out of it with no guarantee of ever emerging from the stench of mediocrity.
GM Daryl Morey has his job cut out for him at this point but where the 76ers are heading now ultimately rests in the hands of James Harden. His decision will now determine the future direction of a franchise straining to win its first NBA title since 1982-83 and counting.
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