The Portland Trail Blazers are right now at a true Sliding Doors moment. The decisions they make over the next month could very much determine the future direction of the franchise.
Right now though, they have a significant problem and at the moment that is Damian Lillard.
In an age where players move more frequently and aim to form "super-teams," Lillard's constant loyalty to Portland has been nothing short of admirable. After making the playoffs in 7 straight seasons (2013-14 to 2020-21), the last 2 seasons have been nothing short of awful for Portland under Chauncey Billups. This has led to increased frustration from Lillard that Portland has been incapable of putting a team around him that can compete for an NBA Title.
Lillard is in fact so frustrated that he has gone on the record as saying
I'm just not interested in that. That's not a secret. I want a chance to go for it and if that
route is to draft youth, then that is not my route.
This is a coded message regarding the organisation's decision to shut him and others down to acquire a higher draft pick, a strategy which has paid off with them securing the number 3 draft pick for the upcoming NBA Draft. While they won't be getting Victor Wembanyama, they still have a chance of drafting a high-level talent.
The problem though is that what Lillard is basically saying is that he wants a chance to go for it which in all likelihood means trading that number 3 draft pick in order to add someone to give him extra help.
So in this situation what does Portland GM Joe Cronin do?
First of all, with the salary cap set to be US$134m in 2023-24, Portland has only got $17 million spare to play with, assuming they bring everyone back next season. They would then have to make a decision about whether they want to go into Luxury Tax or not.
They have a couple of options at play which I will look at as best I can.
I am aware of the illogical nature of some of these options but I'm looking at it the best I can.
Option A: Build Around Damian Lillard
Part 1: Unrestricted Free Agent
This option is one that Lillard would love to see the organisation take. To get the sort of help that I suspect Lillard would want, there would have to be some potential sacrifices.
One option would be to try and convince an unrestricted free agent to come to Portland. Portland let's be honest is a hard sell. It's not your traditional big market so going down this route is going to be tougher.
Are you bringing back Jeremi Grant who is currently unrestricted or do you want an upgrade on him?
Do you think Jusuf Nurkic is the centre to anchor a Portland title challenge?
Answering those sorts of questions determine who you go for. You're not getting a Kyrie Irving or Russell Westbrook because that just won't work.
The sell you're basically trying to make here is this: We want you to come to Portland to play for us alongside Lillard. We would love you to accept lower pay however in exchange, we'll give you extra years.
Someone like Khris Middleton, Kevin Love (as a capable backup to Nurkic), and/or Kyle Kuzma could fit the bill here.
Part 2: Trade For Someone Big
This is absolutely fraught with danger and in a big way for Portland. Doing this is going to require them to give up a lot.
You'd be looking at having to give up some of the following: - Jeremi Grant (Sign and trade to net assets) - Cam Reddish (either sign and trade or not bring him back) - Justise Winslow (same as Reddish) - Anfernee Simons (again to net assets) - Jusuf Nurkic (if you didn't think he could anchor a title contender) That's just in players.
Then you look at Portland's draft hand
The picks circled are picks you suspect would very much be in discussion and while the Stepien Rule prevents them from trading consecutive years of first-round picks, you'd be giving up at least 3 draft picks and players for what...maybe 1-2 years where they could contend by chance.
Again you come back to selling Portland and I just don't see at this point anyone huge who would want to take the chance to go there.
Part 3: Lillard Negotiates a New Contract
This is Lillard's contract situation at this moment in time
This is absolutely obscene. If he follows this the way it is currently outlined, he's up for $170.4m over the next 3 seasons taking him to the age of 36.
What you would want to do is encourage Lillard to decline the player option, and renegotiate for a lower contract which allows them more salary room in order to sign the help that Lillard wants in order to be able to have a run at the title.
Option B: Trade Damian Lillard
This is an option that would not be considered lightly. Lillard's loyalty to Portland in this day and age absolutely deserves to be rewarded and to even consider this option, you would need to answer one fundamental question:
Can we win a title in the current climate?
The current climate ain't a pretty sight. Pelicans have Zion (when fit) and a team who can compete Spurs are getting Wembanyama Houston could be getting James Harden back
Clippers have Kawhi and Paul George (who when fit are capable of tearing teams apart) Lakers have LeBron (at the moment) and Anthony Davis
Phoenix have Kevin Durant and Devin Booker
Dallas has Luka Doncic Sacramento has a good young team that could go places Utah has a lot of draft assets that could prove valuable Oklahoma City has a good young team and a lot of draft assets still to work with
Denver has Jokic and Murray and is in the NBA Finals for the first time
Memphis has Morant and has been really good in the regular season of late
Looking at this, you have to acknowledge that Portland isn't going to be competing with a lot of this.
The second question you have to ask also is this;
Can we afford Lillard's contract?
If he were to opt-in, and then take up the veteran extension offer of $63.2m at the age of 36, can we afford to be paying a 36-yr old player such an outrageous amount?
I wouldn't have thought so.
So what do you do next?
You basically say to Lillard, "We admire your loyalty and we respect that you want the chance to chase a ring. Unfortunately, the decision we're taking is to go down a different path and rebuild. We will help you get to a contender so that you can contend for that deserved ring."
The decision you've basically made is you're going to build around Anfernee Simons with Nurkic as your centre. It's a good starting point and salary cap-wise, a lot more achievable.
In order to trade him though, you need to trade him to a team that not only is contending but also has the necessary assets.
Where does he go though? Brooklyn Nets: -This is an interesting left-field option. - They have draft assets but they also have a younger point guard who perhaps needs to get out of a big market - Potentially you'd be looking at a trade of Ben Simmons and Draft Picks for Damian Lillard - If I'm Brooklyn, I'm doing this trade because you're getting a more reliable point guard and you suddenly elevate yourself into the conversation in the East
Memphis Grizzles: - I know this sounds absolutely outrageous but there is logic to the madness. - A backcourt of Morant and Lillard would be almost unguardable though the concern would be who would need more touches of the ball and who'd be willing to play the shooting guard.
- Memphis has the #25 in this year's draft which would be a good starting point, throw in the 2024 1st round pick from GSW, the 2025 1st round pick, possibly the 2027 1st round pick and maybe a Luke Kennard as an example and I'd look at it.
- Would need a third team to get involved to ensure trade success
Oklahoma City Thunder - Another left-field option but what attracts Portland at the moment are the assets - OKC has 15 first-round draft picks from 2024-2029 - A back-court of Lillard and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is trouble and again, it elevates OKC into the playoff discussion but risks stymying the development of Josh Giddey unless you're trading Giddey to Portland which for OKC is utter madness. - This is a massive call for OKC and I'm not sure if they do it but if I'm Portland, I'm asking the question.
Philadelphia 76ers - Controversial option but again, there is merit behind this - Rumour says that Harden is declining his player option and leaving so naturally Philadephia needs a replacement. - Lillard is very capable of handling the pressure so I don't see him shrinking the challenge in Philadelphia. - The downside here for Portland is that the 76ers don't have the draft assets and I don't fancy they'll want to trade the likes of Tyrese Maxey - So if Harden declines, they would need to trade a Tobias Harris, get some assets and then send them to Portland for Lillard. - It's a very hard sell to see this happen but they do meet the contending criteria so maybe with a series of moves, it could happen.
Utah Jazz - Again I'm looking at the assets and I'm wondering what can be prised out of them. - They have #9 #16 #28 in the 2023 draft and then a further 14 1st round picks from 2025-2029
- Being Portland though, they're going to want a couple of players which leads to a couple of paths a) Do you go after the likes of Jordan Clarkson, Rudy Gay and Luka Samanic for expiring contracts after 2023-24 b) Do you go after someone like a Talen Horton-Tucker or Lauri Markkanen - It's a very, very tough sell on this one but if you're Utah, you've got these assets and a younger team following the trades of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. Do you risk that by going for Lillard or continue down the current path?
Overall Summary:
I am fully aware that some of these scenarios are probably unrealistic due to a variety of NBA Rules governing trades and contracts. I've looked at this from the perspective of what would be ideal for Portland. This is a true Sliding Door/Crossroads moment for Portland because whichever way they go, they've got to get it right. If they build around Lillard they're going short-term gain for probable long-term pain. If they trade Lillard, they're going through short to medium-term pain for a chance of long-term gain.
The biggest challenge overall for Portland at this point is they've got to be able to sell this to the fanbase and I don't know how you'd sell either option at this point.
If I was GM Joe Cronin right now, I would be looking not just at the here and now but wondering about the future costs of Lillard's obscene contract and whether a team could be built around him while allowing him to maintain his current contract.
Truth be told, I would explore the market to see what you could get for Lillard and then based on that, make the decision whether to pull that trigger or not.
Comments