Every year or two in the AFL there ends up being a debate about what we can do to ensure that the teams at the bottom are given a fair chance of success in the future. We already have the draft which does that where the worst team ends up with Pick #1 and the chance to draft the best 18-year-old junior footballer but sometimes that isn't enough. There are occasions when certain teams are given extra help to return to some form of competitiveness.
Recently over the last 4 years, there are two notable examples of this
Gold Coast Suns - Given Pick #1 and #2 in the 2019 Draft - A mid-first-round pick in the 2020 Draft - First pick of the second round of the 2021 Draft - Expanded player academy access including Darwin for 3 years - Ability to pre-sign academy players without bidding - Increased rookie list of up to 10 players
This was an absolutely outrageous package for mine and I feared it would give the Suns too much of a leg-up. Given they've not made the finals since that package but have been more competitive, it could be argued in some ways that it worked as intended.
North Melbourne Kangaroos - Granted a second-round pick in 2023 - Granted a third-round pick in 2023 - Both aforementioned picks had to be used in trades to bring in mature players or cease to exist - An extra two spots on the rookie list
This package was much more modest and when it came to the draft picks side of it, was designed to not disadvantage any other club. They used to picks to trade for both Griffin Logue and Darcy Tucker from the Fremantle Dockers but there were no protests from other clubs as this was seen to be more reasonable than the outrageous advantages that the Gold Coast Suns were given
Which now turns attention to the West Coast Eagles.
Founded in 1986 and playing their first game in 1987, the Eagles have been more successful than most. In their first 34 years of competition, the Eagles made the finals 25 times which resulted in 6 Grand Final Appearances and 4 Premierships. In addition, they have racked up memberships constantly over 100k and have millions of dollars in the bank with a 40,000 waiting list for seats at Optus Stadium. Once upon a time, they were the envy of the competition.
While they are still the envy in terms of their off-field financial status and membership numbers, their on-field results have taken the most extraordinary dive that one has ever witnessed.
Back in Round 13, 2021, the Eagles had just defeated the reigning premiers Richmond by 4 points in an absolutely cracking game at Optus Stadium. They were sitting 7th on the ladder, percentage outside the top 4 and were looking on track for another finals series but then something dramatic happened.
2021 Last 9 Games Wins - 2 Losses - 7 Avg Losing Margin - 37.7pts This average would've been worse if it weren't for close losses against North Melbourne (10pts), Melbourne (9pts) and Fremantle (15pts) which says a lot about the other 4 losses.
Then we turn to 2022 where to some small degree, you could blame covid and a larger degree, being decimated by injuries but the fall-off they experienced in the last 9 rounds continued into 2022 which saw the Eagles have their worst ever season (even including their wooden spoon season of 2010 where they won 4, lost 18 and had a percentage of 77). If a wooden spoon season is better than a historically low season, then you have yourself a problem in the making
2022 Season Wins - 2 Losses - 20 Percentage - 59.8% Avg Losing Margin - 49.15pts
This yet again doesn't entirely do justice to how bad they were as 8 of those losses were by under 30 points. While we can't cherry-pick statistics to try and make something look better or worse, in this instance we've taken those 8 losses out. Once we do that Avg Losing Margin - 68.9pts (12 games)
Looking at the 2022 season, yes, they had injuries and covid but so did others. This was seen as an all-time low and surely they couldn't go any lower...or could they??? This now brings us to the current season where yet again, the Eagles have been smashed with injuries. At one stage during the Round 3 game against Fremantle, Coach Adam Simpson abandoned the coaching box for the bench only to basically be talking to a casualty ward, such was their luck in that game. Every week they've ended up with a few injuries per game and it's hard to get any sort of consistency but then you look at where they're at currently and...honestly, it's more horrifying than American Horror Story.
2023 Season (to date) Wins - 1 Losses - 13 Percentage - 47.3% Avg Losing Margin - 72.5pts
Again I've decided for generosity or otherwise to take out any losses under 30 points but that doesn't really help things either. Their opening loss was the most competitive game margin-wise. They showed a lot of heart against Freo in Round 3 (41 pt loss) and after a first-half obliteration by Geelong in Gather Round, they fought back to at least make the scoreline respectable (47 pt loss) and there have been patches where they have been competitive. Avg Losing Margin - 78.1pts (12 games)
Season-wise, these losing margin averages are very bad but that doesn't take into account what has occurred over the last 2 weeks. Unfortunately to damn the Eagles even more, their last 2 weeks would be the most uncompetitive 2 weeks ever seen by a team in the AFL.
Eagles 13.8.86 Opponents 58.31.379
Yes, that's right! In the last 2 weeks of football, the Eagles have lost to Adelaide and Sydney by a combined 293 points.
This then leads to 2 very interesting questions:
1) Are the West Coast Eagles (22-23) currently worse than Fitzroy (95-96) in the last years of their existence? For me, this is a challenging question to answer because you would, first of all, have to take into account the circumstances both teams were going through
Fitzroy's future was being sorted out and merger talk along with financial issues dominated 199-96. The players there were worried about actually having a career to continue so in some respects they can be forgiven there. The Eagles have been smashed first by Covid (early 2022) but then by an injury run the likes of which not many have seen before. Every time they get one or two players back, they manage to lose 3 more. They have undoubtedly been cursed.
To try and separate further, we need to try to differentiate their on-field performances. For this, I have picked the figure of 100pt + losses Fitzroy 95-96 - 6 games lost by 100+ in their last 44 games Eagles 22-23 - 6 games lost by 100+ in their last 36 games
With the potential of more 100+ losses to come in their last 8 games, this metric alone would make the Eagles (22-23) worse than Fitzroy (95-96) but we can't predict the future so it's hard to actually say what will happen. In addition, there was no 2 game stretch where Fitzroy was belted by consecutive opponents by a combined 293 points in 1995-96.
One more metric I chose to look at is the for and again to try and see if I could nail it down further
Fitzroy 1995-1996 (44 games) Eagles 2022-2023 (36 games) For: 3069 For: 2259 Against: 5715 Against: 4142 Percentage: 53.7% Percentage: 54.5%
I have never seen a tighter statistic and given the Eagles have played 8 fewer games, this actually doesn't bode too well for them unless a miracle were to occur. Verdict: Can be answered at the end of the season
2) If the Eagles were to apply for AFL Assistance given their consecutive years of humiliation, should they be granted extra help? The fact we're actually starting to think about this question is troubling in itself. There is no denying that the lack of competitiveness from the Eagles is compromising the integrity of the 2023 Season and when it comes to the integrity of the season, the AFL are no fans of their seasons being called into question.
I also cannot deny that the Eagles have been smashed by a run of injuries that is almost without precedent. Whether that's a fitness/medical staff issue, I'm not entirely sure but if they've not looked at that issue by now, that would be negligent of them in the extreme. Any team that has lost the amount of players the Eagles have would struggle, maybe not to this extent but they would still struggle.
Let's then turn to their list management and quite honestly, there are 2 aspects of this that need to be looked at a) The Trade for Tim Kelly At the end of 2019, the Eagles believed they were still in a premiership window and wanted to strengthen to maintain their spot among the elite teams. To do this, they decided to trade for Geelong's Tim Kelly, who had expressed a desire to return home. The price they paid for this however was outrageous Eagles Received: Tim Kelly, Pick #52 and Future Third Round Pick (2020) Geelong Received: Pick #14 Pick #24 Pick #33 and Future First Round Pick (2020)
They gave up essentially 2 first-round and 2 second-round picks for the player and 2 third-round picks.
At the time it was said Geelong had taken them to the cleaners and now, I have no doubt that they demolished the Eagles on this trade Verdict: Right trade BUT too high a price (could've done better, especially for a 2nd-year player)
b) Their Salary Management This should never have come up at all but following an article today that revealed the AFL Rich List, suddenly their salary management has to be called into question. For a team that is performing so badly and probably almost worse than Fitzroy 1995-96, the fact that the Eagles have SEVEN players inside the Top 100 is not just staggering, it's borderline incompetence.
Jeremy McGovern (3rd) Tim Kelly (4th) Andrew Gaff (34th) Elliott Yeo (49th) Jack Darling (50th) Tom Barrass (53rd) Oscar Allen (54th)
Q: Are these players at their best worth their position in that Top 100? A: Possibly! Q: Based on how crap the team has been in the last 2 seasons, do they deserve to be in the Top 100? A: I wouldn't have thought so
Looking at all the evidence as it stacks up and yes, using the benefit of hindsight, the decline of the Eagles slowly began from that Tim Kelly trade and now has just accelerated to the point that they are an uncompetitive rabble.
Injuries are sometimes unavoidable but their list management since the end of 2019 has contributed to what is an ugly fall with further levels still to go. In many cases, it could comfortably be argued that the Eagles have brought a lot of this on themselevs
Verdict: NO! The Eagles should not get an assistance package as that would be bailing a team out for their own list management incompetence.
For the AFL and the Eagles sake, I hope that over the last 8-9 games they can be more competitive otherwise it would become without a doubt certain that they at this moment in time are worse than Fitzroy of 1995-96.
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